As the Syrian conflict nears its fifth anniversary, DAVID ADAMS looks at a report from World Vision/Frontier Economics which counts the growing human and financial toll…
The cost of the Syrian conflict could grow to as much as $US1.3 trillion should it continue for another four years, according to a report released this week ahead of the five year anniversary of its outbreak on 15th March.
The report, Cost of Conflict for Children – Five Years of the Syria Crisis, found that even if the conflict ended this year, the economic cost would still be at least $US448 and as high as $US689 billion – an amount which is 140 times that currently needed by UN agencies and partners to meet humanitarian needs inside the country and almost 100 times the amount needed to meet the needs of Syrian refugees across the region.
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“We need peace now so we can start planning for the enormous task of the reconstruction and long-term investment Syria will need to get back on its feet.”– Fran Charles, World Vision’s Syria crisis response advocacy director and one of the authors of the report. |
At the time of writing the report – the work of humanitarian organisation World Vision and Frontier Economics, Europe’s largest independent economic consultancy, the cost to Syria was estimated at $US275 billion.
More than 470,000 people have been killed in the conflict including more than 11,000 children while of the 13.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance and protection in Syria, six million are children.
An analysis by the Syrian Centre for Policy Research shows that the killed and wounded amount to about 11.5 per cent of the Syrian population with most deaths – 400,000 – caused directly by violence. Some 70,000 were caused by the indirect consequences of war such as the collapse of the country’s health infrastructure. The analysis puts the number of injured people at about 1.88 million Syrians.
Other “costs” of the conflict outlined in World Vision/Frontier Economics report, meanwhile, include the loss of the equivalent of 24.5 million years of schooling by the end of this year (with about 5.7 million children in Syria in need of educational assistance), and a 15 year drop in estimated life expectancy with only 43 per cent of hospitals in Syria functional and half the number of certified doctors having fled the country.
Fran Charles, World Vision’s Syria crisis response advocacy director and one of the authors of the report, says that even should the conflict end now, it would take decades for Syria to recover.
“We need peace now so we can start planning for the enormous task of the reconstruction and long-term investment Syria will need to get back on its feet,” she says.
The report also outlines the costs to neighbouring countries, showing that in Lebanon – the country in the region outside of Syria most affected by the conflict, real GDP is estimated to be almost 23 per cent lower thanks to the ongoing war.
Meanwhile, the report notes that Turkey has spent more than €7 billion of its own money ($US7.8 billion) on supporting Syrian refugees (although this is offset by of 4.2 per cent growth in real GDP) while Jordan, like Lebanon, has also seen a significant drop in real GDP of 12 per cent.
The report makes a number of recommendations including calling for the protection of children and families caught up in the conflict as well as those fleeing it, and for parties to the conflict to make all efforts to bring it to a “swift resolution”. It also calls on international donor governments to fulfill funding pledges.
Tim Costello, World Vision Australia chief executive, says the report highlighted the fact that “five years is enough”.
“Sometimes conflicts like Syria seem to be never ending, but they can be brought to an end,” he says. “Sometimes suffering seems to be too great, but it can be relieved. Sometimes it feels as though there is nothing we can do to help, but there is always something we can do.”
World Vision says it has assisted more than three million “refugees, internally displaced people and vulnerable host community members” affected by the Syrian crisis since 2011.
~ www.worldvision.com.au/syria
