INTO THE FUTURE: NEW REPORT PREDICTS DRAMATIC RISE IN NUMBER OF MUSLIMS BY 2050 WHILE PROPORTION OF CHRISTIANS TO REMAIN STEADY

DAVID ADAMS reports on the findings of a new study looking at how demographic trends are expected to impact world religions around the globe over the next four decades…

The proportion of the world’s population who identify as Christian is expected to remain steady over the next four decades and see them continue to make up the world’s largest religious group despite dramatic growth in the number of Muslims, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center.

Released earlier this month, the report, The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, shows that if current demographic trends continue, the number of Muslims is projected to rise from 1.6 billion people – or 23 per cent of the global population – in 2010 to 2.8 billion people – or 30 per cent of the world’s population – by 2050, representing a 73 per cent rise and making it the fastest growing religion in the world.

WHAT FUTURE CHRISTIANITY? The Pew Research report says that Christianity will remain the largest religion by 2050 but, based on current trends, there would be more Muslims than Christians after 2070. PICTURE: David Adams NO LONGER A CHRISTIAN MAJORITY? Australia, the UK  and New Zealand are among eight countries in which the majority of people will no longer identify as Christian in 2050, according to the Pew Research Center report. The report found that the number of countries which have Christian majorities is expected to decline from 159 to 151 over the next four decades. In Australia, the projected figures show the proportion of people who identify as Christian will decline from 67.3 per cent of the population in 2010 to 47 per cent in 2050 (although Christianity will still represent the largest religious group in the country).  In the UK, the proportion of Christians will decline from 64.3 per cent to 45.4 per cent (but still remain the largest religious group) while in New Zealand, the proportion will drop from 57 per cent to 45.1 per cent with people unaffiliated with any religion taking over from Christianity as the largest religious grouping. The other five countries which will no longer have a Christian majority in 2050 including Benin (where Christianity will remain the largest religious group), France and the Netherlands (where, like New Zealand, people unaffiliated with any religion will make up the largest “religious” group) and Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzogovina (where the largest religious group will be Muslims). – DAVID ADAMS

In contrast, the number of Christians – 2.2 billion or 31 per cent of the world’s population in 2010 – is only expected to see a 35 per cent rise in absolute numbers with projections showing 2.9 billion – a figure still equating to 31 per cent of the world’s population – will identify as Christians in 2050.

If the trends continue beyond 2050, the report predicts the number of Muslims would equal the number of Christians by 2070 and that by 2100, about 35 per cent of world’s population would be Muslim, and 34 per cent Christian.

High fertility rates among the “comparatively youthful” Muslim populations are seen as key to this growth.

Elsewhere, the report – which looked at trends in eight major religious groups which also included Buddhists, Hindus, Jews, folk religions, other religions and the unaffiliated – shows that with the exception of Buddhism (projected to have 1.5 million less adherents in 2050), all of the world’s major religions are expected to see some growth in absolute numbers over the period.

This includes the group comprising atheists, agnostics and people who aren’t affiliated with any religion but the report notes that despite this growth in absolute numbers, they will make up a declining share of the population – from 16 per cent in 2010 to 13 per cent in 2050.

Other key findings of show that by 2050:

• The proportion of people who profess to be Christians in the US will decline from more than three quarters in 2010 to two-thirds;

• Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa;

• The largest Christian populations will be found in the US, Brazil and Nigeria;

• Muslims will make up 10 per cent of Europe’s population while the percentage of Christians in Europe will continue to decline, from 66 per cent in 1910 to 26 per cent in 2010 and just 16 per cent in 2050;

• India will be the country the largest Muslim population (both it and Pakistan are expected to pass current leader Indonesia) although Hindus, at 77 per cent of the population, will remain in the majority in the country; and

• the global number of Jews is expected to grow by 16 per cent to 16.1 million people while the proportion of the world’s population who are Jews will remain steady at just 0.2  per cent.

The report was produced as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, jointly funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation. It takes into account a range of demographic factors including fertility, life expectancy, age structure, migration and religious “switching”, a term used to describe the situation when a person converts from one religion to another.

While the report says that religious switching is only expected to have a “modest” impact on the global size of most religious groups, the projections do show that while 40 million people are expected to “switch in” to Christianity by 2050, this will be offset by a predicted 106 million who will “switch out” resulting in a net loss of 66 million including 44 million men and 22 million women.

~ www.globalreligiousfutures.org
~ www.pewforum.org/files/2015/03/PF_15.04.02_ProjectionsFullReport.pdf