Dr Keith Suter, a scenario planner and conference speaker, recently completed a PhD thesis looking at the possible futures for the denomination. He speaks with DAVID ADAMS about his findings…
Dr Keith Suter, a scenario planner and conference speaker whose involvement with in the Uniting Church in Australia goes back to its creation in the 1970s, recently completed a PhD thesis looking at the possible futures for the denomination. He speaks about his findings…
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Dr Keith Suter “(I)f all the Uniting Church aged care, child care, schools, university colleges, etc, were brought together into one corporation and quoted on the Australia Stock Exchange, this corporation would be larger than 90 per cent or even 95 per cent of the current companies listed! It is a multi-billion dollar entity. A theme in the PhD is that the Uniting Church has to be viewed as one vast business entity and should be managed accordingly.”
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Why did you decide upon the future of the Uniting Church as a topic for your PhD thesis?
“I joined the then Sydney Central Methodist Mission in 1976 and was involved in the creation of the Uniting Church right from at the outset (I helped with the inaugural event held at the mission in June, 1977). The PhD was an opportunity to reflect on the Uniting Church (I retired in 2008 and now have honorary roles within it).
“I did an MA in religious studies at the University of Sydney almost three decades ago and the Department of Religious Studies a few years ago suggested that I do a PhD (I already had two). With the prospect of early retirement I decided to take this on as a self-funded retirement project.”
What is the essence of your research?
“The PhD is a study of the Uniting Church using the scenario planning technique. There are, in secular terms, three ways of thinking about the future: (i) ‘prediction’, such as economists who predict the state of the economy in a year’s time; (ii) ‘preferred’, having a vision of what you would like to see happen and then devising plans for getting there; and, (iii) ‘possible’, what could happen (not what is currently being suggested by graphs or what you would like to see happen). Scenario planning is a detailed management system for detecting ‘possible’ futures. This PhD is the first time scenario planning has been used on an Australian church.”
What did your research identify were the key challenges facing the Uniting Church in Australia at the moment – I gather the tensions of being a ‘church’ with a focus on the spiritual welfare of members while also being Australia’s largest aged care provider is a key one?
“When I told people that I was doing a PhD on the future of the Uniting Church, they said it would be a short one! Yes, the Uniting Church has declining congregations.
“On the other hand, if all the Uniting Church aged care, child care, schools, university colleges, etc, were brought together into one corporation and quoted on the Australia Stock Exchange, this corporation would be larger than 90 per cent or even 95 per cent of the current companies listed! It is a multi-billion dollar entity. A theme in the PhD is that the Uniting Church has to be viewed as one vast business entity and should be managed accordingly.
“One challenge, then, for the Uniting Church is that it has declining congregational members. Second, it is a vast and expanding business undertaking but few people have viewed it as such. Third, the Uniting Church is badly structured for its sheer size. Fourth, the Uniting Church in business terms is the result of a ‘merger and acquisition’ (M&A). About 70 or 80 per cent of M&As fail – and so the Uniting church in 1977 was going against the odds.
“Finally, the PhD is also a study of the wider society in which all Australian churches have to operate. We are now (I argue) in a third era of church history: the post-Constantinian era, whereby the churches have lost the special status and power they enjoyed in the Constantinian era (about AD400 to 1600) and they are now competing with other factors (changing work patterns, television, social media, etc). I think there is little dislike of the Uniting Church – just a benign neglect. The Uniting Church is irrelevant to most people (unless you are a beneficiary of the welfare work).”
The Uniting Church has attracted criticism at times for its liberal interpretation of theology and for being perceived as favouring social justice activism over preaching/teaching of the Bible and a focus on Jesus Christ. Do you touch upon these concerns in your research?
“The PhD is not a theological one. It is a study of a church as an organisation.
“The Uniting Church’s theology gets mentioned all the time. Indeed one of the ironies of the Uniting Church is that it is so broad and welcoming – and yet it is one of the fastest declining churches in terms of membership. The third scenario (see below) (‘Return to the Early Church’) explores some emerging theological trends.”
“It is not about prediction or picking winners (a “preferred” future). The scenario planning process is to help people/organisations think about what could happen and if necessary to think about the unthinkable by expanding their mental horizons.” |
You came up with four different scenarios aimed at addressing these challenges: the first – “Word and Deed” – would see the church continuing to provide both spiritual activities and social welfare, albeit with smaller churches amalgamating into larger ones, while the second – “Secular Welfare” – would see the church focusing its efforts solely on social welfare like a secular provider, the third – “Return to the Early Church” – would see the church move away from the management of government social welfare programs and back to a focus to “winning souls for Christ”, and the fourth – “Recessional” – would simply see the organisation wound up and its assets dispersed. Are all of these scenarios equally possible?
“In the scenario planning technique (first developed by Shell in the civilian sector about half a century ago) the process results in four scenarios. Each has to be equally plausible. It is not about prediction or picking winners (a “preferred” future). The scenario planning process is to help people/organisations think about what could happen and if necessary to think about the unthinkable by expanding their mental horizons.”
If the church doesn’t take any action, do you see it simply falling in to one of these scenarios by default?
“Then the fourth scenario – ‘Recessional’ – comes into play. The Uniting Church will decline at the congregational level and consideration will need to be given to ensuring the survival of the flourishing parts (such as aged care).”
There is a theory that churches – and I gather this could extend to denominations – generally only have a limited lifespan in cultures before they should close down and reinvent themselves (although there are some large exceptions like the Catholic Church). Is that a theory you give any credence to?
“Yes, I agree. In fact, I do look at a lot of church history in the dissertation. (if I seem to have covered many topics it is because I have written a long dissertation – 107,000 words!)”
What’s been the reaction of the church leadership (and members) to your research to date?
“It is early days yet. Overall it has been welcomed as an encouragement of debate. People know there is no malicious intent of my behalf.”
Given the role the Uniting Church plays in aged care in Australia, I gather that any move the church makes – particularly if it moves out of aged care – will have big implications for Australian society as a whole?
“I cannot imagine the Uniting Church ever moving entirely out of aged care. Like all aspects of modern society, there are many changes in aged care but as Australians get older so there will be an increasing need for some form of aged care.
“A continuing commitment to aged care (and other forms of community welfare) is found in all four scenarios. Even if the ‘Recessional’ scenario comes into play, there will need to be separate arrangements made for aged care to continue. Not all of the Uniting Church is in decline!”
Your research looked specifically at the Uniting Church but are lessons other churches can draw from it as well?
“Absolutely. In fact the American Episcopalian (Anglican) Church is now embarked on the same process.
“The wider social environment in which the Uniting Church now has to operate is common to all Australian churches.
“I have created a new company (www.worldofthinking.com.au) to provide scenario planning services to people and organisations (including churches). There is also a separate website for churches – www.churchfutures.com.au – where the dissertation and supporting materials may all be downloaded for free.
