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Brazilian election: Politicians vie for evangelical vote ahead of October presidential poll

Brazil Jair Bolsonaro Assemblies of God

EDUARDO CAMPOS LIMA reports on how the political landscape in Brazil may be changing as some evangelicals move away from supporting incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro…

São Paulo, Brazil

The two major contestants in the upcoming Brazilian presidential election in October, current President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have been fiercely competing for the votes of evangelical Protestants, a group that in 2018 were decisive in ensuring Bolsonaro’s victory. 

While Bolsonaro must secure the great support he traditionally has received from evangelicals, Lula needs to attract the largest possible share of them, while keeping a majority among Catholics. 

Brazil Jair Bolsonaro Assemblies of God

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro during church service of the Assembly of God. PICTURE: Isac Nóbrega.

But things are not so clear now as they were in 2018. Lula was barred from taking part in the last election due to criminal convictions for corruption and chose Fernando Haddad, formerly his Education Minister, to represent him. Bolsonaro received 56 per cent of the total votes in the second turn, while Haddad had 44 per cent. 

While the Catholic vote (which corresponded to 56 per cent of the total votes) was equally divided among them, a great majority of the evangelicals (whose share corresponded to 30 per cent of the electorate) supported Bolsonaro, almost 70 per cent, explains José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a demography expert who worked at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.

“A relevant part of the evangelicals do not think that Bolsonaro continues to be a good option, one that represents the priorities of the evangelical context. And many of them do not think he has been well successful in his administration.”

– Luiz Sayão, a Baptist pastor and Biblical translator.

“Bolsonaro was also victorious among the followers of other religions, like the Spiritists,” he tells Sight.

Although Bolsonaro declares himself to be Catholic, his third wife Michelle is an evangelical and and he is frequently seen by her side in her church. Throughout his tenure as President, he has been able to maintain his alliance with the Christian bloc in Congress, a giant group of deputies and senators formed by members of evangelical churches (indeed, such are the strength of his ties to evangelical leaders that Bolsonaro was baptised by one of them in the Jordan River in 2016).

But his controversial administration, marred by several environmental catastrophes, a persistent economic crisis, and the more than 660,000 deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a declining popular support. And that has included some among the evangelicals.

Brazil Lula da Silva

Presidential candidate Lula da Silva. PICTURE: Ricardo Stuckert

One recent PoderData poll showed that while 42 per cent of evangelicals see his administration as excellent or good, another 40 per cent consider it to be bad or terrible. Among Catholics, his ratings are considerably worse. Only 26 per cent of them consider him to be a good or excellent President, while 57 per cent think he is either bad or terrible.

“A relevant part of the evangelicals do not think that Bolsonaro continues to be a good option, one that represents the priorities of the evangelical context. And many of them do not think he has been well successful in his administration,” notes Luiz Sayão, a Baptist pastor and Biblical translator. 

Lula’s campaign is hoping to take advantage of the situation. He had been convicted of receiving bribes as part of Operation Car Wash, a taskforce led by judge and later Bolsonaro’s Justice Minister, Sergio Moro. But after serving 580 days of his sentence, he was released in November, 2019. Last year his convictions were annulled by the Supreme Court.



Lula’s Workers’ Party, along with other left-wing organisations, have now been trying to directly contact evangelical churchgoers, without the mediation of leaders who are mostly connected to Bolsonarism.

“I believe that many people who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 did it because of that political atmosphere created by the Operation Car Wash and Lula’s imprisonment,” says Baptist pastor Valdemar Figueredo. “Many people were not Bolsonarists. They were just reacting to the denouncements against the Workers’ Party.”

Figueredo, a political science expert, considers that, while many of Bolsonaro’s most ardent supporters are evangelical, many evangelicals are not blind followers of him.

“And many evangelicals who voted for him in 2018 are not voting again for him,” he adds.

Brazil Sao Paulo evangelical church

An evangelical church in São Paulo. PICTURE: Luisrftc/iStockphoto

The most recent poll released by PoderData on 13th April showed that 53 per cent of evangelicals intend to vote for Bolsonaro, while 24 per cent support Lula. Among Catholics, Lula has 47 per cent of support and Bolsonaro 29 per cent.

In Baptist pastor Sayão’s opinion, things are still unpredictable. He believes that a great part of the evangelicals voters are “voluble”.

“They can change their opinion to one direction or another, depending on the events,” he observes. “I think the evangelical electors do not have much consistency today.”

Francisco Borba Ribeiro Neto, director of the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo’s Center of Faith and Culture, argues, however, evangelicals have shown they can be guided by a religious identity when they choose their candidate. 

“The Catholic vote against Bolsonaro only reflects the general dissatisfaction of Brazilians with his administration,” he says. “But the evangelical vote for him is clearly confessional.”

In his opinion, many evangelicals support Bolsonaro because he “represents a revenge against the long historical process of political marginalisation of non-Catholic religions and against the more recent process of cultural cancellation of the evangelical values by the dominant mentality”.

“To a great extent, the evangelicals see themselves in Brazil as a peculiar group. Their criteria to make a decision are moral and heavily influenced by the confessional aspect.”


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Demographer Diniz Alves believes if the current situation continues, Lula will manage to obtain half of the evangelical votes and have a landslide victory among Catholics and Spiritists.  

“Presumably the election will be decided by the Catholic majority of the Brazilian voters, which is showing that it will vote against the current president,” he said.

But one topic may yet play a central role in the campaign: abortion. Earlier this month Lula declared during a debate that “abortion should be dealt with as a public health issue” and that it should be “a right for everybody, and not a shame”.

His declaration spurred controversy among many, especially evangelicals. Many analysts believe that it will have an impact on voting.

“Such statement makes unfeasible an outright defence of his name by moderate Christian leaders,” says Ribeiro Neto. “In this sense, it gave a great help to Bolsonaro’s campaign.”

He thinks that Lula is confined to his party’s inner circle and is listening only to his close aids – among whom abortion rights is an important agenda. That is something that may lead him to be defeated in October, he adds.

Valdemar Figueredo believes issues regarding morals will be exploited by the Bolsonaro campaign and that any pro-women’s rights declaration by Lula will certainly feed online attacks.

“Maybe those subjects should be discussed with rationality and not emotion. But that is the atmosphere of an electoral campaign.”

 

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