14th September, 2005

CHRIS PIPER

Since Katrina - a category four hurricane - struck the southern coast of the United States a little over two weeks ago, much of what we’ve seen through the media has amazed us. Initially there was the intensity of the damage, and then the seeming ineptitude of authorities as they struggled to respond to the unfolding human calamity. And throughout all this, for us, the same question - are there lessons for us here in Australia?

While hurricanes regularly strike the south coast of the US (there were four major ones which hit Florida last year), Katrina seems to have inflicted much more damage and deaths than before.

Initially the death toll was quoted at 10,000 or more, but latest figures are rapidly revising this downward - probably to a final toll of up to 1,000 people. Much of the flooding (and loss of life) occurred in New Orleans, where damage was not so much wrought by the hurricane directly, but by the resultant breaching of the levees river levees which protected the city from the waters of the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain.

PICTURE: Web Whirlers (www.istockphoto.com) "While the death toll was dwarfed by the estimated 228,000 people who lost their lives in the 2004 Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami...the economic losses from Katrina will greatly exceed those from the tsunami. While for the whole of 2004, the total economic losses from disasters worldwide (as compared to conflict situations), amounted to around $US145 billion (compared to $US60 billion in 2003), already the estimated bill from Katrina looks like easily exceeding $US120 billion."

While the death toll was dwarfed by the estimated 228,000 people who lost their lives in the 2004 Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami (unlike an undersea earthquake and possible resultant tsunami, usually there is plenty of warning for a hurricane or cyclone or typhoon), the economic losses from Katrina will greatly exceed those from the tsunami. While for the whole of 2004, the total economic losses from disasters worldwide (as compared to conflict situations), amounted to around $US145 billion (compared to $US60 billion in 2003), already the estimated bill from Katrina looks like easily exceeding $US120 billion.

What was initially disturbing is that this event seems to have caught the authorities by surprise to a great extent. The national body responsible for emergency/disaster management, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), reported back in 2001 that the three most likely disasters to hit the country were a hurricane strike on New Orleans; a terrorist attack on New York; and an earthquake in California. But why didn’t FEMA itself react more impressively? While the agency generally operated well under the Clinton administration, and indeed the disaster management models are similar to those practiced here in Australia, it has since seemingly been emasculated under the Bush regime. Not only was it absorbed into the larger Department of Homeland Security - where the emphasis has been more towards countering the threat of terrorism - it also seems to have lost its ability to focus in on pre-disaster planning.

Ideally FEMA-directed plans should cover a range of responses from a city level up through state and up to a federal level. Ideally, it also should include a range of pre-disaster, response and post-disaster initiatives, with pre-disaster including prevention, preparedness and mitigation outputs. On the issue of prevention, it was known that the levees were crucial to the safety of the New Orleans, and following Hurricane Camile in 1969, they were indeed strengthened to resist a category three hurricane level. A further $US500 million of improvements were made over the 10 year period from 1995 but annual federal grants had been cut by the Bush administration since 2003 from $US36.5 million to $US10.5 million. (Whether New Orleans should be there in first place is a moot point. Part of the Netherlands, for example, also lies below sea-level, with its communities and polders protected by strong sea-defences.)

When Hurricane Katrina struck there appeared to be chaos on the ground with mismanagement seemingly occurring at all levels, from City of New Orleans upwards to the Federal Government. The cascading overlap of plans just didn’t seem to work, including the designated communications routes in and out of the city. More serious charges should be levied at the authorities who designated the New Orleans Superdome and Convention Center to act as evacuation centres but failed in their duty of care responsibilities to provide adequate management, safety, segregation, washing, food, water and toilet facilities. Equally damning are the writs currently being aimed at the owners of old peoples' homes where residents are believed to have died in unnecessary circumstances.

Another development which caused surprise was the breakdown in law and order. The rich and middle class evacuated the city beforehand and it was mainly the poorer citizens who were left behind. Some localities then quickly sank into anarchy or worse, particularly at the designated so-called evacuation centres. Media images showed people at a loss of what to do - often the response here compared unfavourably with communities in cities such as Dhaka, Bangladesh, who seem to draw on greater levels of resilience as they adapt their lives to deal with disaster.

Some of the authorities responses have appeared ad hoc and over-dramatic at best. Huge numbers of potential deaths were initially bandied about, apparently without much reference given to local disaster management specialists who might have been able to give more realistic figures. Was there then the need to evacuate everyone? It is enormously expensive housing, feeding and generally looking after people. Experienced aid practitioners also know that affected people usually want to quickly return home - to check their houses; re-establish their lives and livelihoods; and ensure their kids go back to ideally their own schools. Spontaneous repatriation occurred in Kosovo in 1999, when, after the Serbian ceasefire, Kosovar refugees in Albania and Macedonia returned home, despite the fact that many houses were ruined and the economy was in tatters.

In New Orleans the public health risks were probably over-inflated, and while special care is obviously needed for the vulnerable (such as the old, sick and very young), most able-bodied people could have returned home relatively promptly. It is after all these people who clean up their homes, and add to community resilience and strength. It was interesting to note that in Banda Aceh, a city which lost between 60,000 and 80,000 people in the tsunami, community members (and outside helpers) responded in such a way, that by the 26th January (just one month after the disaster) all the surviving schools were officially re-opened to register staff and students. Finally, why is there the need for national guardsmen to continually carry guns all the time? Australian and other military personnel who helped in Aceh aftermath were generally all unarmed.

The danger from Katrina is that we take some sort of glee at seeing the Americans botch up their relief efforts, and don’t look into our own backyard. We all too easily forget the 2003 bushfires in Canberra, which led to the McLeod Report which painted a less than flattering picture. The fires there had been raging for number of days, but when it did suddenly sweep into Canberra on the Saturday, it seemed to catch both the authorities and the general public by surprise. The 61 recommendations from this report include issues relating to more effective coordination & control; better pre-disaster fuel management mitigation initiatives; improved coordination between major territory/state-level stakeholders; and improvements in the general public’s education and public information channels.

So could a disaster of Katrina’s magnitude ever happen here in Australia, particularly in coastal areas, frequented by tourists, where the bush meets the sea? Yes, there are certainly plans at city and levels, but are these well complemented by those in major petro-industrial complexes, or old peoples' homes? Certainly there is good training in place for volunteers such as the State Emergency Service and country fire authorities, but what about the community awareness and information issues, not only for residents but also for summer visitors and tourists? Drive down, for example, VIctoria's Great Ocean Road on any day, and ask yourself seriously why the fire authority recommendations for protecting houses by cutting back on undergrowth around each of them obviously aren’t being adhered to. And could the authorities handle a major bushfire breaking out in the wrong place at the wrong time? Worst-case scenarios could include a fire starting in the middle of the bush, with winds fanning it towards the sea - perhaps just after the New Year, when the popular rock concerts are in full swing, or the beaches are packed with holiday makers? Are our plans, and is our community awareness, really good enough to prevent a major tragedy from occurring under such circumstances?

All are questions we need to ask ourselves as a community.

Chris Piper teaches international and community development to graduate level students at Deakin University, in Victoria, and also runs his own overseas aid consultancy, TorqAid. He does regular consultancy work for the Australian Government and major non-government organisations and has been involved in a number of post-disaster activities relating to the Indian Ocean Tsunami this year.